The US central bank is widely expected to start cutting interest rates this week. However, uncertainty remains over whether it will opt for a small or a big reduction.
Interest rate decisions are also due in the United Kingdom, Brazil, Norway, Turkey, and South Africa. The Japanese and Chinese central banks also take center stage as announcements are expected alongside decisions in Taiwan and Indonesia.
Meanwhile, crypto markets have already started to retreat heavily on Monday morning, wiping out weekend gains.
Economic Events Sept. 16 to 20
Tuesday will see August’s Retail Sales report, which provides data on the amount of money consumers are spending on various durable and non-durable goods.
This offers an insight into consumer spending and provides a leading indicator for the current quarter’s economic growth in addition to inflationary factors.
The August Industrial Production report is also due on Tuesday. This information reveals the volume of production of US industries such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although it is a much smaller slice of economic activity than services, it can still be a leading performance indicator.
The highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and press conference is on Wednesday, Sept. 18.
The CME Fed Watch tool currently has 41% odds on a 25 basis point rate cut and a 59% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut, which could drop rates to around 5% from the current 5.5%.
Key Events This Week:
1. August Retail Sales data – Tuesday
2. August Building Permits data – Wednesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
4. Fed Press Conference – Wednesday
5. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday
6. August Existing Home Sales data – Thursday…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 15, 2024
Head of financial markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Australia, Martin Whetton, told Bloomberg, “At the very least, a dovish cut should be expected given the run of data and the starting point for policy, and this should justify market forward pricing.”
Markets in Asia opened cautiously on Monday morning ahead of this week’s swath of data and central bank decisions that could set the direction of markets for the rest of the year and into early 2025.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets were dumping again on Monday morning, with total capitalization declining 4.3% to $2.12 trillion, wiping out all of the weekend gains.
Bitcoin was hit 3%, falling from above $60,000 on Sunday to below $58,500 on Monday morning. It is likely to continue, returning to support at the $58,000 level.
Ethereum was hammered even harder, with a 6% crash to $2,275 at the time of writing, its lowest level for over a week.
The altcoins were playing their usual lemming tactics, following suit and dumping even harder with a sea of red enveloping the crypto top twenty.