On the morning of July 4, the exchange rate of the first cryptocurrency fell below $58,000 at the moment, which was last observed in February. In an hour, quotes lost 3.8% on increased volumes due to liquidations of $69 million, according to Coinglass.
The 15-minute BTC/USDT chart of the Binance exchange. Data: TradingView.The volume of forcibly closed positions became the maximum since June 24 ($177.4 million).
Data: Coinglass.The deterioration in sentiment also affected other crypto assets from the top 10 by capitalization.
Data: CoinGecko.On July 3, net outflow from spot bitcoin ETFs amounted to $20.45 million after $13.6 million a day earlier, according to SoSoValue. The negative dynamics continued for the second day in a row.
Investors withdrew $27 million from GBTC from Grayscale, and added $6.55 million to FBTC from Fidelity. Zero changes were recorded for other products.
Data: SoSoValue.Bloomberg drew attention to the departure of the bitcoin price below 183 DMA, which historically served as a bearish signal and indicated the risks of further decline.
Data: Bloomberg.The probability of falling to $40,000
Andrew Kang of Mechanism Capital drew a parallel with the rate of the first cryptocurrency going down from the range in May 2021 after a parabolic rally. In his opinion, a large leverage has accumulated now (over $50 billion), the market has been in the range for a long time and has not encountered the large squashes that were characteristic of the events of three years ago.
Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin
The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts
$50B+ of crypto leverage here is… https://t.co/R3qAcCajAC pic.twitter.com/B4bpeoZwxo
"It is likely that the initial estimates of the [correction] of $50,000 were too conservative, and we will see a more extreme pullback to $40,000. If implemented, it will be very disruptive to the market. This may require several months of rebounding/downward dynamics (recovery period) before it becomes possible to return to an upward trend," the expert did not rule out.
https://forklog.com/news/eksperty-nazvali-urovni-proryvy-kotoryh-vyvedut-bitkoin-iz-apatiiFactors of decline
Bloomberg recalled the phased reimbursement by the trustee of Mt.Gox of 137,000 BTC to customers of the bankrupt platform and the concern of traders that some of the coins will end up on the open market.
https://forklog.com/news/v-jpmorgan-otsenili-posledstviya-rasprodazhi-mt-goxThe distribution of digital gold by the US and German authorities is also causing nervousness. Additionally, the US election factor may put pressure on the course.
"The likelihood that a stronger Democratic candidate will take Biden's place, who may not support cryptocurrencies, is one of the factors [in the decline]," commented Richard Galvin, co—founder of Digital Asset Capital Management.
The author of the bulletin Crypto Is Macro Now, Noel Acheson, reminded Bloomberg about the selling pressure from miners.
In an interview with The Block, the marketing director Bit.com Toya Zhang announced the placement of large orders on OTC platforms.
"Due to the lack of liquidity in the market and the lack of new developments in the cryptocurrency sector, it is difficult to see noticeable growth without a significant advantage in the form of lower interest rates," he explained.
Recall that Standard Chartered predicted a new bitcoin ATH in August.
Earlier, CryptoQuant announced the completion of the formation of prerequisites for the resumption of the rally in the third quarter.