The number of new coins on exchanges is growing at a tremendous pace. In the first half of 2024, the number of listings on CEX exceeded the figures for the entire year 2023. According to Bloomberg estimates, 240 coins and tokens have been added to trading lists on leading platforms over the past six months.
Experts attribute the unprecedented activity to the growth of bitcoin after the adoption of spot ETFs in the United States based on digital gold and the actions of American politicians regarding the regulation of cryptocurrencies. But what happens to the prices of new coins? Oleg CashCoin figured it out.
Signs of listing contracts
To understand the real profitability of new assets, it is necessary to analyze 23 crypto assets from the latest listings in the future 30 days from the start of trading on the Bybit, Binance, KuCoin, OKX exchanges. The total number of coins that showed growth in a month is four.
This means that the overall indicator of successful assets on the market in the 30-day period after the start of trading is within 17%. If we consider each exchange separately, the statistics change for the better — about 30-40% of tokens show growth.
The largest drawdowns after listing occurred on KuCoin: of the 13 coins reviewed, three fell by more than 80% a month after listing. The rest lost from 10% to 40% over the same period. Only four listings showed growth or no decline.
The minimum drawdowns turned out to be on Binance — up to 40%. However, the ratio of coins that have grown is about the same as on other exchanges — about 40%. And this is the main feature of the site — the drop in tokens after the start of trading does not exceed 50% at the moment during the period under review.
On Bybit, the maximum drop in new tokens 30 days after the start of trading was 80%, five out of 10 listings fell by more than 40%, and only four out of 12 coins showed growth.
Only three tokens out of 11 reviewed have grown on OKX. The maximum decrease in value was recorded at the level of 60%, the remaining drops are in the range of 20-30%.
Perhaps the limited drop in Binance and OKX is due to the availability of contracts for listing terms. At the end of 2022, former CEO of Binance Changpeng Zhao (CZ) revealed one of such agreements with the Mithril project team.
It stated that if the token is traded below a certain price within 15 days, the exchange has the right to remove the coin from the trading lists. CZ responded to the claims of the Mithril team regarding the delisting of the MITH token:
"I checked after I saw your post. Here is the contract clause for reference to you and the community. We usually respect confidentiality as long as you don't violate it. The security deposit is intended to encourage creators to continue working."
If such arrangements exist, then OKX and Binance are most likely using them. Probably, the exchange and the project set a lower range for the price of the asset with the possibility of penalties for the second one.
The trend is getting worse
Back in early 2023, analysts pointed to the so-called Binance effect, when tokens showed an average growth of 73% after listing in the first 30 days of trading. Experts noted that in most cases, the placement of assets on this exchange has a positive impact on their price due to the huge volume of trading.
The assumption of a year ago turned out to be inapplicable today. Despite the fact that the Bybit exchange has significantly increased its trading share relative to the rest of the market, becoming the second largest platform after Binance, listing statistics show one of the worst results.
The overall picture has also changed. As of November 2023, the ratio of successful and failed listings was much more attractive. The exchanges showed positive dynamics, where Binance had six successful listings against four failed ones, and OKX — four against two, respectively. Bybit showed 12 "soaring" projects against 8 unsuccessful ones. KuCoin had 12 successful coins against 18 dropped ones.
Data: Acheron Trading.The trend began to deteriorate markedly around the middle of 2023, when bitcoin was worth about $26,000 and the active phase of discussions on digital gold-based ETFs in the United States was just beginning. Just before the subsequent growth, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased 2.5 times.
An unexpected conclusion can be drawn from this: probably, the number of successful projects on listings is higher when the cryptocurrency market is in a calm position or falling. When markets grow, listings become a less secure investment tool.
Since August 2023, the average figures have returned to the form that is still being observed. However, the cumulative result of the "winners" of last year was 29%, which is twice as high as the observations on new listings on the Bybit, Binance, Kucoin, OKX exchanges with a total success rate of about 15%.
Data: Acheron Trading.Of course, you can count different periods by taking, for example, data for 90 days after listing, but this will only expand the statistics, without answering the question of what to do after transferring the coin to the exchange.
The general market trend showed that, at least until mid-July 2024, it was statistically best to sell immediately and not buy new listings. And the most restrained drop in tokens turned out to be on the Binance and OKX exchanges.
It is also worth noting: Tokens that have demonstrated positive dynamics are unique in that they are traded on at least three major exchanges. The start of trading on only one or two exchanges, as a rule, has a negative impact on the price of the coin.
Tokens with positive dynamics include: Notcoin (NOT), LayerZero (ZRO) and Aethir (ATH). However, this does not speak about the prospects in general, but only about the greater probability that the token will not fall by 80% or 90% in the first weeks of listing on major exchanges.