In the next one or two years, the first cryptocurrency will surpass "everything else" in growth against the background of an improvement in the liquidity situation in the United States. This forecast was given by the analyst of The DeFi Report, Michael Nadeau.
He noted the amount of debt of the United States, which will require refinancing this year, as well as market expectations of a reduction in the Fed rate at least three times.
"This should provide a tailwind for risky assets like stocks of technology companies and high—quality cryptocurrencies," Nadeau said.
Among other favorable factors, he named:
approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs that have made it easier for investors to enter the industry;halving in the network of the first cryptocurrency, historically leading to a rally due to a reduction in the supply of coins;a new cycle of venture investors' interest in blockchain projects against the background of maturation and scaling of technology.According to the analyst, bitcoin's recent breakout to highs "may augur well for a move towards what looks like the second half of the current bull market."
He also noted that quotes were usually sent to the next day in cases of long periods of excess of the cost of mining 1 BTC over the spot price. Now the figures are ~$42,000 and ~$64,000, respectively, and miners are able to maintain operations without selling off reserves.
Do Bitcoin and Ethereum correlate in cycles?
Regarding the correlation of the two leading cryptocurrencies in capitalization, the analyst stressed that it exists, but with its own characteristics:
in the first phase of the bullish rally, bitcoin is ahead in growth and "leads" the market;at the second stage, there is a tendency to "intercept" the leadership of Ethereum and other altcoins.According to Nadeau, this is due to the recognizability of digital gold, which new investors pay attention to in the first place. Then they start looking for other, more profitable options.
"It is noteworthy that over the past two cycles, altcoins have grown so much that they have surpassed bitcoin in both cases," the analyst added.
He admitted that the trend will continue, but only for coins that meet "market expectations as a product." According to him, these include Ethereum, assets of a number of DeFi protocols and infrastructure projects, including those from the Solana ecosystem.
In the long term, experts have more expectations from bitcoin
On the contrary, ex-CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes suggested in early April that bitcoin could fall in the short term due to liquidity problems in the market. He linked this to the tax period in the United States, as well as the policies of the Fed and the Ministry of Finance.
For a long time, the expert recognized halving as a historically bullish catalyst for the first cryptocurrency.
Fred Thiel, CEO of the Marathon mining company, expressed the opinion that the reduction in the block reward is mostly taken into account by the market in the price of bitcoin. The event will not have a significant impact on quotes, he believes.
https://forklog.com/exclusive/kakoj-budet-tsena-bitkoina-posle-halvingaAnalyst Benjamin Cowan allowed the cryptocurrency to fall after halving. The host of the YouTube channel Into The Cryptoverse extrapolated the behavior of quotes during the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January. However, he acknowledged that this is one of the likely scenarios, since such patterns usually do not repeat themselves.
If #BTC repeats the pattern that it had going into the spot ETF as it goes into the halving, then it would look something like this.
Usually these patterns do not repeat exactly, but just showing it here in case something similar happens once again. pic.twitter.com/GNiy2IDRs9
JPMorgan experts came to a similar conclusion based on an analysis of open interest in futures. According to their assessment, the asset is in an overbought state.
Recall that the founder of MN Trading, Michael van de Poppe, suggested testing the price of the first cryptocurrency to a new maximum, but in case of holding the $69,000 mark.
If it falls below $59,000, the market risks entering a bearish phase, says Willy Wu, co-founder of CMCC Crest.