On-chain metrics - MVRV, SOPR and realized losses — correlate well with the formation of local minima in the bull market. This was demonstrated in Glassnode.
According to analysts, the group of short-term investors is the dominant group fixing losses. They decided to back up this empirical observation by identifying periods of exhaustion of sellers to determine inflection points during corrections and consolidations within the framework of an uptrend.
Reversal areas tend to move from smaller timeframes (from minutes to hours) to larger ones (from days to months), experts said.
In order to identify this effect, they used age-breakdown metrics, identifying two different sets of investors from a broader category of speculators (the retention period of coins is less than 144 days).
The experts highlighted:
day traders (transactions within 24 hours);swing traders (day-month).According to analysts, the first group reacts almost instantly to any price fluctuations, forming a large number of signals of depletion of sales. Many of them are "noisy" due to the unstable nature of the selected timeframe, they added.
Data: Glassnode.Swing traders have a noticeably lower frequency of fluctuations within the signal, since a higher time range smooths out the average cost. This group is less sensitive to price changes, but is also prone to volatility, as quotes often fluctuate around their purchase level during the time they hold a position.
Experts promised to continue working on improving on-chain metrics to identify behavioral patterns that are reflected in the depletion of sales.
Recall that Standard Chartered analysts announced that bitcoin had reached the bottom as part of the correction, confirming the target of $150,000 at the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Ex-CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes allowed the digital gold quotes to overcome the $60,000 level and move to $70,000 by the end of August.
Earlier, QCP Capital predicted an increase in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $74,000 due to ETF purchases by hedge funds and favorable inflation data in the United States.