What a difference a couple of days makes, from bullish ‘Uptober’ momentum to bearish price predictions.
Bitcoin slumped around $4,000 in the wake of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, and negative sentiment has seeped back onto crypto social media.
However, zooming out shows that BTC is still within its range-bound channel, which has continued for the past half a year.
A Fall to $40K Possible?
On Oct. 2, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen painted a very gloomy picture based on historical price action following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin rallied for two weeks following the first rate cut in 2019. However, it then tanked to the 100-week moving average in the months that followed.
If history rhymes, a similar fall to the same technical indicator would put BTC prices back at around $42,000 by mid-November, he said.
Just to offer a different view to consider other than the “up only” view mostly shared on this platform, in 2019, #BTC rallied for 2 weeks after the 1st rate cut, then dropped to the 100W SMA 2 months later, which would correspond to mid-November. pic.twitter.com/ogicF89JrM
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 2, 2024
However, the suggestion does not take into account that 2019 was the middle of a bear market, and it was not a halving year, which makes a difference.
Nevertheless, other analysts also suggested something similar but provided no rationality, later describing it as a ‘shitpost.’
This was the $BTC test dump for 40k. Bearish. pic.twitter.com/vbmszAMHmb
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) October 1, 2024
As market analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out in a post on X on Oct. 1, there are plenty of reasons to remain bullish.
Increasing global liquidity through M2 money supplies, rate cuts, which are usually good news for riskier assets, China’s economic stimulus measures, an approaching US election where crypto is a focus, and a traditionally bullish period for crypto in Q4 are some of them.
On Oct. 2, ‘Ash Crypto’ told his 1.1 million X followers that this was “a big shakeout.” He added that October will start with a dump, and we will see a sideways chop for most of the month before things lift off.
Miner Profitability Slumps
Nevertheless, Bitcoin miners may have a reason to be bearish. According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin mining profitability hit a recent low in September.
Daily block reward gross profit decreased 6% month-over-month in September, marking the third consecutive month of decline. The drop in revenue has been largely attributed to the Bitcoin halving event in April. However, transaction fee revenue for the month was only $13.86 million, observed Colin Wu.