Veteran commodity trader Peter Brandt has suggested that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could drop by as much as 75%.
The 77-year-old based his warning on the observation that in the past, Bitcoin experienced major corrections whenever it failed to reach a new all-time high (ATH) within 30 weeks of its previous peak.
Could Historical Patterns Signal Potential Downturn for Bitcoin?
Brandt’s remarks come at a time when the trillion-dollar cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain an upward momentum in recent months. It has been 30 weeks since March 14, when its price went above $73,000 to register a new ATH.
Currently, the asset is 17.6% off that peak, with the price showing a slight 0.5% dip from its previous level in the last 24 hours. However, the regression is most prominent over two weeks, with BTC shedding 7.1% of its value in that period.
While some quarters may consider these as minor fluctuations, Brandt’s analysis points to a much larger historical pattern that could signal trouble ahead for investors.
According to the Factor CEO, in previous cycles, the failure of Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory after hitting the last price milestone often led to huge pullbacks. He suggested that its current stagnation could lead to a bearish turn, stating, “Markets that don’t go up usually can’t go up.”
Further, the analyst clarified that his assessment was based on historical patterns and not personal opinion, noting, “I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion.”
However, Brandt still expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, saying that it was the largest tradeable asset in his portfolio.
Crypto Community Reacts
As is often the case when a noted figure makes what may be considered a controversial statement, the legendary chartist’s comments sparked conversation, with many traders sharing their thoughts on his warnings.
Some speculated that the cryptocurrency’s ATH may have been boosted prematurely by the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that external factors could be distorting the usual price cycles.
Others questioned the soundness of comparing previous cycles, especially with the Bitcoin halving that occurred earlier in the year and the influence of institutional players like BlackRock, potentially altering current market dynamics.