The correction of the first cryptocurrency may continue up to the $44,000 mark. This opinion was expressed by technical analyst and head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt.
Has Bitcoin completed a double top?
Yes or no????
If yet, minimum target is $44,000
What do you think?$BTC pic.twitter.com/EpzeihHJtF
The expert wondered if bitcoin had completed the "double top" figure on the daily chart. According to his calculations, the upper level of this model is about $72,000, and the lower one is at $43,970.
The "double top" is a technical figure that signals a medium— or long-term trend change from bullish to bearish. It is formed when the price of an asset peaks twice with subsequent pullbacks.
During the discussions under the post, Brandt admitted that the current deviation from the peaks of the "top" is only 10%, and the model itself assumes a drawdown of 20%. Therefore, the analyst allowed the completion of the bearish movement or its possible continuation, depending on the further dynamics of digital gold.
On July 5, bitcoin failed the $54,000 level. However, the asset recovered above $56,000 the next day.
At the time of writing, digital gold is trading at $57,200, having gained 2.5% per day.
The 15-minute BTC/USDT chart of the Binance exchange. Data: TradingView.Possible bottom
In a weekly report, Bitfinex analysts pointed to the likely achievement of a local minimum by bitcoin, as evidenced by market data.
In their opinion, the fall was facilitated by news about compensation to creditors of Mt.Gox and the movement of bitcoins confiscated by the German government. However, the market has realized that we are not talking about such a significant amount of assets, experts stressed.
In addition, the researchers recorded a narrowing of the spread between the implied and historical volatility of the first cryptocurrency. This means that investors expect more stability.
The implied and historical volatility of Bitcoin. Data: Bitfinex.A large number of "late short positions" also indicates a lack of clear confidence in any direction of the market, Bitfinex added.
"Although long-term bitcoin holders continue to make significant profits, the sales of short-term investors are already potentially close to exhaustion. The SOPR indicator for short-term traders is 0.97, which indicates sales at a loss. In the past, when this happened, prices rebounded as selling pressure eased," the report says.
Analysts stressed that for the first time since May 1, the financing rate for indefinite contracts for bitcoin has become negative.
The financing rate for perpetual bitcoin contracts. Data: Bitfinex.The combination of these factors — oversold, negative financing rate and recovery of SOPR — often signals the bottom has been reached, according to Bitfinex.
Recall that some experts have allowed bitcoin to collapse to $50,000. In their opinion, the sharp drop in the asset will not be limited to the current level due to the change in sentiment.
At the same time, Standard Chartered analysts predicted a new historical maximum for the price of the first cryptocurrency in August and a subsequent increase to $ 100,000 by the US presidential election in November.
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