Crypto markets have started to recover over the weekend with a total capitalization gain of around 4%, primarily led by Bitcoin, which reclaimed the $63,000 level during Asian trading on Monday morning.
This short week’s economic calendar does not have many big-hitting reports but could still shed light on the direction of economic recovery in the United States.
Additionally, U.S. jobs data may influence the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, potentially impacting crypto markets as confidence in higher risk assets returns.
Economic Calendar July 1-5
Monday, we will see the release of June’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). This report shows business conditions in the manufacturing sector and provides an indicator of wider economic conditions. It is used to assess the state of the economy and forecast changing trends.
A similar ISM Services PMI report is due on Wednesday, highlighting conditions in the U.S. services industry which contributes more than 70% of the GDP. Changes in these PMI reports often precede changes in the wider economy.
Key Events This Week:
1. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday
2. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday
3. JOLTs Jobs Data – Tuesday
4. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
5. Stock Market Closed – Thursday
6. June Jobs Report data – Friday
We have a short but very busy week…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2024
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will make comments at a European Central Bank conference on Tuesday, followed by the release of the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting on Wednesday. These could provide insights into how central bankers view inflation, interest rates, and the economy.
Unemployment data will be released on Friday, and these reports will be closely monitored by the Fed to gauge the overall health of the economy.
Central bank policymakers have said that with inflation improving, it was important to keep a close eye on jobs. An unexpected rise in unemployment could prompt the Fed to move more aggressively to cut interest rates, the first of which is expected in September.
However, jobless claims continue to rise, according to the Kobeissi Letter.
Is the US labor market at an inflection point?
Continuing jobless claims surged to 1.84 million in the week ending June 15th, the highest level since 2021.
At the same time, the 4-week moving average rose to 236,000, the highest since September 2023.
This is also evident in… pic.twitter.com/yIKy2Qh15X
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2024
Crypto Market Impact
Crypto markets are expected to continue slowly recovering if economic data out of the U.S. is positive.
Markets have been largely range-bound in terms of total capitalization since the end of February, oscillating around $2.5 trillion. However, they hit the lower boundary of that range during last week’s dip.
Bitcoin has added 3% over the past 24 hours, reaching $63,300 at the time of writing, its highest level in just over a week.
Ethereum prices gained a similar amount, reaching $3,483 ahead of key ETF announcements this week.
The altcoins were largely in the green, with greater gains for Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), and Near Protocol (NEAR).