Bitcoin’s price tumbled below $50,000 at the start of August and to under $53,000 at the beginning of September, which is historically a bad month for the asset.
However, it managed to bounce off, and certain factors provide a more optimistic perspective about the upcoming months in terms of price action for the largest digital asset.
Declining Exchange Reserves
CryptoQuant’s analysis started its bullish forecast by outlining the declining number of BTC stored on cryptocurrency exchanges. As reported yesterday, the bitcoin exchange netflow shows mostly outflows, suggesting that investors have pulled their funds from the trading platforms, which reduces the immediate selling pressure.
According to CQ’s outlook, such transfers out of exchanges have been followed historically by price increases and new peaks.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves. Source: CryptoQuantThe graph above shows two such prominent examples from the past four years. Back in late 2020, the BTC held on exchanges declined substantially and the asset skyrocketed to new all-time highs at the start of 2021.
Something similar transpired in early 2023, but a new ATH happened roughly a year later. This suggests that even though this is a bullish development, it could take months and even a year for this cycle’s peak to arrive.
Stablecoin Reserves on a Roll
The second factor listed by CryptoQuant is also something that we touched upon yesterday – the rising stablecoin reserves on exchanges. Just ahead of BTC’s impressive $4,000 rally on September 9 and 10, $300 million worth of stablecoins entered trading platforms, and they serve as the most convenient gateway for investors to accumulate digital assets.
“… Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are increasing, indicating that investors are preparing to buy. Stablecoins represent ready-to-deploy capital, and their rising presence suggests that traders are waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market. This increase signals strong buying interest.” – reads CQ’s report.
Overall Bullish Sentiment
While resources like the Fear and Greed index are still in ‘fear’ territory, CryptoQuant’s analyst said the overall market sentiment could be on the brink of a massive change due to the two aforementioned factors.
Additionally, October and November have been historically more bullish months for bitcoin. This, combined with the upcoming rate hikes in the States and the presidential elections (especially if Donald Trump wins), could lead to an inevitable BTC price breakout that might result in new peaks by the end of the year or at the start of 2025.